The Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 14th to 16th. The meeting made it clear that the general tone of the work of "striving for progress while maintaining stability" is an important principle of governing the country. The meeting also pointed out: "Stability is the main tone and stability is the overall situation. Under the premise of stability, we should make progress in key areas and work hard on the premise of grasping the degree."
Striving for "new identity" in stability
The meeting made it clear that the general tone of the work of "striving for progress while maintaining stability" is an important principle of governing the country. The meeting also pointed out: "Stability is the main tone and stability is the overall situation. Under the premise of stability, we should make progress in key areas and work hard on the premise of grasping the degree."
"Striving for progress in stability", the general tone of economic work in recent years, will rise to a new height in 2017, become an important principle of governing the country, and also push "striving for progress in stability" to a new realm.
China’s economic growth rate has stabilized at 6.7% for three consecutive quarters; Investment is slowing down and stabilizing, consumption is rising steadily, and exports are rising from falling; PPI broke the negative situation for 54 months, and deflation in the production field was obviously alleviated; Manufacturing PMI stood in threshold for four consecutive months and rose to a two-year high, and the market is expected to warm up … …
Wang Jun, deputy director of the Information Department of the International Economic Exchange Center, said that the foothold of "stability" is to maintain social stability, including increasing public investment in employment, education, medical care, social security, environmental protection and food safety, which is consistent with the goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way in the 13th Five-Year Plan.
Wang Yiming, deputy director of the State Council Development Research Center, pointed out that the core of striving for progress while maintaining stability is to stabilize policies and expectations. "To achieve economic stabilization, we must not rush for success, strengthen our confidence and maintain strategic strength." "Stability" is the cornerstone and "progress" is the goal. The two complement each other. Experts believe that on the basis of stability in 2016 and further implementation of new development concepts, the quality and efficiency of China’s economic development will be further improved in 2017.
Room, not fried.
In 2016, the Central Economic Work Conference made a more detailed statement on real estate destocking. Including adhering to the position that "houses are used for living, not for speculation", comprehensively using financial, land, fiscal, taxation, investment, legislation and other means, speeding up the research and establishment of basic systems and long-term mechanisms that are in line with national conditions and adapt to market rules, not only curbing the real estate bubble, but also preventing ups and downs.
"Long-term mechanism means that the development of the real estate market cannot rely solely on temporary emergency policies. The key is to solve internal fires and improve system construction." Chai Qiang, vice-president of China Real Estate Appraiser and Real Estate Brokers Association, said that the key to establishing a long-term mechanism for the stable and healthy development of real estate is to properly handle the relationship between housing consumption and investment, real estate and economic growth, stock houses and incremental houses.
The meeting also pointed out that in terms of destocking, it is necessary to adhere to classified regulation and control, and focus on solving the problem of excessive real estate inventory in third-and fourth-tier cities due to local policies. It is necessary to combine destocking with population urbanization, improve the interconnection of infrastructure between third-and fourth-tier cities and megacities, improve the level of public services such as education and medical care in third-and fourth-tier cities, and enhance the attractiveness of agricultural transfer population. It is necessary to speed up the legislation of the housing leasing market and accelerate the development of institutionalized and large-scale leasing enterprises. Strengthen the supervision and rectification of the housing market, and standardize the development, sales and intermediary activities.
Liu Hongyu, director of Tsinghua University Real Estate Research Institute, believes that the key to the stable development of the real estate market is to stabilize market expectations and reduce the irrational behavior of market participants. Judging from this meeting, the next step should be to speed up the construction of a series of systems such as housing system, land supply system, housing financial system, real estate tax system, real estate market regulation, new urbanization, etc., and guide the market to stabilize expectations with a long-term mechanism.
"There will be a breakthrough in the establishment of a long-term real estate mechanism in 2017, including taxation and land policy." Chen Sheng, deputy director of the Marketing Committee of China Real Estate Research Association and executive director of China Real Estate Data Research Institute, said that the word "stability" should be the first priority in real estate regulation and control in 2017. Judging from the current data of real estate sales, construction and newly started area, the possibility of rising house prices in 2017 still exists. Therefore, real estate regulation and control must be firmly grasped, and speculative housing purchase must be strictly controlled.
Finance, more active and effective
The meeting pointed out that we should continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. The fiscal policy should be more active and effective, and the budget arrangement should meet the needs of promoting supply-side structural reform, reducing the burden of corporate taxes and fees, and ensuring people’s livelihood. Monetary policy should remain stable and neutral, adapt to the new changes in the mode of money supply, adjust the monetary gate, strive to unblock the transmission channels and mechanisms of monetary policy, and maintain the basic stability of liquidity.
In terms of fiscal policy, Gao Peiyong, dean of the Institute of Finance and Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview that in 2016, the tax reduction brought by the reform of the camp only exceeded 500 billion yuan. In the middle of the year, Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party proposed to reduce the macro tax burden; At the end of November, the the State Council executive meeting also made it clear that next year, we will continue to vigorously implement the policy of reducing taxes and fees in accordance with the government’s requirements of living a tight life and reducing burdens for enterprise development. There is still a lot of room for fiscal policy next year, and the biggest room is to reduce costs for enterprises. However, we must change our thinking and not engage in fiscal policy according to the original thinking habits.
In particular, this time the word "neutral" was added after the monetary policy was stable, and the monetary policy released a new signal. With uncertain external signals and downward pressure on the economy, monetary policy may seek a "stable" signal. In response to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike, domestic financial risks and asset bubbles, the future monetary policy will seek a balance between easing and tightening, and flexible scheduling.
Wu Ge, chief economist of Huarong Securities, said: "From this statement, it can be seen that monetary policy will become more neutral while being stable, especially the prevention and control of asset bubbles will be placed in a more prominent position, so I think the monetary environment next year will not be too loose overall."
Liu Haijie, a postdoctoral researcher at Guosen Securities, said that 2017 will be a more difficult year, and the whole economic situation has entered a "trudging stage", just like people walking in a wilderness full of mud. Every step is difficult, but it will not take long. In this case, the choice of monetary policy will also be more cautious. It is bound to take into account several major tasks of deleveraging, suppressing bubbles, stabilizing exchange rates and preventing risks.
Risk, play triumphantly
The meeting proposed that we should put the prevention and control of financial risks in a more important position, make up our minds to deal with a number of risk points, focus on preventing and controlling asset bubbles, improve and improve our supervision ability, and ensure that systematic financial risks do not occur.
Yang Yue, an economic analyst at Zheshang Bank, said that the expressions of "a number of risk points" and "asset bubbles" show that the central government has a very deep understanding of the potential risks in the current economic and financial fields.
"In fact, there have been a series of targeted measures since this year, whether it is the continuous overweight of real estate regulation and control policies, the release of the Emergency Response Plan for Local Government Debt Risks, or the solicitation of opinions on the new policy of the CBRC’s off-balance sheet business supervision. Many potential risk areas recognized by all sectors of society are receiving high attention. ‘ Make up your mind ’ The formulation shows that the central government is determined to enter the critical period and deep water area of financial risk prevention and control, and has the courage to fundamentally rectify deep-seated contradictions and problems. "
“‘ Improve and improve the regulatory capacity ’ The statement may indicate that there will be substantial progress in the reform of the regulatory system next year. At present, there are many financial innovations, and the risks contained in various businesses across markets and institutions are more extensive, hidden and complex, and the difficulty of identification and management is significantly increased. This requires corresponding top-level design, transformation in comprehensive risk management, and keeping the bottom line. " Yang Yue further stated.
Wu Ge, chief economist of Huarong Securities, believes that "in recent years, risks have rotated in the fields of stock market, bond market, real estate and cross-border capital flows, so it is difficult to point out the risk points in a specific field. However, I think that the risks that are deeply buried, or that may be exposed in the future, are in the direct financing field, which is reflected in the default of the bond market and the bankruptcy risk of enterprises, and the second is the indirect financing field, which is reflected in the rise of non-performing loans of banks. "
Wu Ge also stressed that financial risks are only appearances, and behind them are problems encountered by entities. Therefore, the key to cure the symptoms is to let the entity enterprises have better profit growth points and create a better business environment, especially for private enterprises.
Breakthrough, state-owned enterprise reform
The Central Economic Work Conference clearly pointed out that the reform of mixed ownership is an important breakthrough in the reform of state-owned enterprises, and substantial steps have been taken in the fields of electric power, oil, natural gas, railways, civil aviation, telecommunications and military industry in accordance with the requirements of improving governance, strengthening incentives, highlighting the main business and improving efficiency.
In this regard, Xiang Anbo, Enterprise Research Institute of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that in the new year, the reform of mixed ownership will probably make a new breakthrough: "For the reform of mixed ownership, the documents are ready, and then it is combined with the reform of industry system in important fields. How to promote the reform of mixed ownership? There needs to be substantial new progress in this regard. "
Xiang Anbo said that after the pilot in 2016, if the reform of state-owned enterprises can be further promoted and broadened in the direction of marketization, such as selecting managers in the market, the vitality of state-owned enterprises will be further enhanced, thus releasing more dividends.
Li Hongtu, chief researcher of Expo Finance, said that one of the most important tasks in the supply-side structural reform is to solve the "state-owned enterprise disease". Under the current system and mechanism, state-owned enterprises have become the focus and complex of all contradictions faced by China’s real economy and financial reform and development.
He said that if the decision-making level wants to "vigorously revitalize the real economy" and smoothly promote the supply-side structural reform, the first thing that needs to be tackled is the "state-owned enterprise disease". The fundamental purpose of solving the "state-owned enterprise disease" is still to make the state-owned enterprises better and stronger.
Supply side aims at agriculture
The meeting said that the structural reform of the agricultural supply side should be further promoted. It is necessary to give priority to increasing the supply of green and high-quality agricultural products and pay close attention to standardized production, brand creation and quality and safety supervision of agricultural products. It is necessary to intensify the comprehensive management of outstanding rural environmental problems and increase the efforts to return farmland to forests, lakes and grasslands. We should actively and steadily reform the price formation mechanism and purchasing and storage system of important agricultural products such as grain. Do a good job in the reform of corn purchasing and storage system and do a good job in digesting policy grain stocks. Refine and implement the method of "separation of powers" for contracted land, and cultivate new agricultural business entities and service entities. Deepen the reform of rural property rights system, clarify the ownership of rural collective property rights, and give farmers more adequate property rights. We will make overall plans to promote rural land expropriation, the entry of collectively operated construction land into the market, and the pilot reform of the homestead system. It is necessary to strictly observe the red line of cultivated land, accelerate the implementation of the strategy of storing grain on the ground and storing grain in technology, and protect and improve the comprehensive grain production capacity. Broaden the way for farmers to increase their income and get rich.
The CPC Central Committee and the State Council have always paid great attention to agriculture. Both the annual economic work conference and the rural work conference involve agriculture, especially the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee last year, which put forward new requirements for agriculture: we should adhere to the development concept of innovation, green, open sharing, focus on the demand of supply-side structural reform, and take a road of agricultural modernization with China characteristics in the development of modern agriculture.
In the view of Ye Xingqing, director of the Rural Economic Research Department of the State Council Development Research Center, "This central economic work conference regards promoting the structural reform of the agricultural economy as a major task for next year and a period to come.". After these years of development, there have been some prominent contradictions and problems in the agricultural field, such as the imbalance between production and demand, the mismatch of resources, the deterioration of the ecological environment, the rising cost of price inversion, the decline of agricultural competitiveness, and the declining ability of agriculture to control income. The fundamental way to solve these problems is to solve the institutional and institutional contradictions in agriculture by means of reform. "
Clear path to de-capacity
The meeting pointed out that in terms of de-capacity, it is necessary to continue to promote the steel and coal industries to resolve excess capacity. It is necessary to seize the bull’s nose in dealing with "zombie enterprises", strictly implement relevant laws, regulations and standards on environmental protection, energy consumption, quality and safety, create conditions to promote mergers and acquisitions of enterprises, properly handle corporate debts, and do a good job in personnel placement. It is necessary to prevent the resurgence of overcapacity that has been resolved, and at the same time do a good job of de-capacity in other industries with serious overcapacity by market and rule of law.
The merger and reorganization of the steel industry has taken the lead. This year, with the approval of the State Council, Baosteel Group Co., Ltd. and Wuhan Iron and Steel (Group) Company reorganized to form China Baowu Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. The new group will have a total capacity of over 16 million tons in 2016 -2018.
The merger and reorganization of the coal industry is also in the pipeline. Lian Weiliang, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, revealed that the National Development and Reform Commission is studying measures to promote cross-industry merger and reorganization of coal enterprises in upstream and downstream related industries, and supporting the creation of cross-industry, regional and ownership enterprise platforms. He said that it is necessary to speed up the closure, elimination, merger and reorganization of small coal mines, sum up and popularize the effective experience of some regional industries, encourage large coal enterprises to merge and reorganize small and medium-sized coal mines, expand a number of large coal enterprise groups, further improve the standards for running mines, and promote the industrial structure to the middle and high end.
In July this year, Guoyuan Coal Asset Management Co., Ltd., a central enterprise coal asset management platform company funded by China Guoxin, Chengtong Group, China Coal Group and Shenhua Group, was established and operated. The platform will cooperate with the implementation of central enterprises to resolve the excess capacity of coal, promote the optimization and integration of coal resources of central enterprises involved in coal, and promote the slimming and fitness, quality improvement and efficiency improvement, structural adjustment and reform of central enterprises involved in coal.
Over the past year, relevant departments have paid close attention to the implementation of the State Council No.6 and No.7 documents, formulated supporting documents and specific measures, and signed target responsibility letters with provincial governments and central enterprises. At the same time, we will carry out in-depth three special actions: eliminating backwardness, cleaning up illegal and illegal construction projects and joint law enforcement, properly resettling employees and disposing of debts, organizing special supervision and acceptance, strictly controlling new production capacity and implementing reduced production, actively promoting mergers and acquisitions, transformation and upgrading of enterprises, and strengthening the summary and promotion of typical experiences. In particular, progress has been made in enterprise mergers and acquisitions and structural adjustment. In terms of steel, Baosteel and Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. were jointly reorganized to form China Baowu Iron and Steel Group Co., Ltd. In terms of coal, of the more than 6,000 small coal mines with a capacity of 300,000 tons/year and below, more than 2,600 have been included in the scope of de-capacity; The coal business sector of central enterprises was further optimized. According to the latest data from the National Development and Reform Commission, the target tasks of steel production capacity of 45 million tons and coal production capacity of 250 million tons this year have been fulfilled ahead of schedule and exceeded.
"century-old shop"
The meeting was clear and focused on revitalizing the real economy. We should focus on improving quality and core competitiveness, persist in innovation-driven development, and expand the supply of high-quality products and services. It is necessary to establish a strong sense of quality first, carry out quality improvement actions, raise quality standards and strengthen total quality management. Guide enterprises to form their own unique comparative advantages, carry forward the "artisan spirit", strengthen brand building, cultivate more "century-old shops" and enhance product competitiveness.
Zhang Jun, chief economist of Morgan Stanley Huaxin Securities, said that it has always been the central policy to vigorously develop the real economy. However, in the past few years, due to weak demand and overcapacity, the return on investment in the real economy has declined, resulting in a tendency for the economy to be "divorced from reality" and triggering asset price bubbles and potential systemic financial risks. Therefore, the purpose of the government’s structural reform next year is also to form new economic growth points and guide liquidity into the real economy.
Zheng Yongnian, chairman of institute for public policy Academic Committee of South China University of Technology, believes that "if the government puts the focus of economic development on the financial industry and ignores the real economy, the result will be disastrous in the long run."
"The main battlefield for revitalizing the real economy is in the manufacturing industry. The key lies in the stock and the core is innovation." Li Beiguang, deputy director of the Planning Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency that in addition to accelerating the development of emerging industries, it is more important to use innovation to promote the "old trees and new buds" of traditional industries.
