月度归档： 2025 年 7 月

Price cycle fluctuation since reform and opening up and its enlightenment

Price is a barometer of economic performance. Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy has developed at a high speed, accompanied by severe price fluctuations. By combing and analyzing the past price fluctuations, we can get some enlightenment that is beneficial to the current price work.

Division of price fluctuation cycle in China since reform and opening up

Using the "Valley-Valley" method, the fluctuation of prices (in this paper, consumer price index CPI) since China’s reform and opening up is divided into cycles, and there are five representative price cycles.

The first time was from 1978 to 1983. In this cycle, the peak price appeared in 1980, which was 7.5%, and the gap between peak and valley in the price cycle was 5.5%. The actual situation is: on the one hand, there are obvious situations such as overheated investment and increased consumption expenditure in China, and the increase in fiscal expenditure leads to a serious fiscal deficit; On the other hand, the state has adjusted the unreasonable price system, which has pushed up prices to some extent.

The second time was from 1984 to 1986. At this time, China’s price reform has entered the second stage. The full liberalization of prices has effectively activated the market, and also made the hidden supply shortage and suppressed demand further open. In addition, the overheated economy and uncoordinated economic development have led to an overall increase in prices. In 1985, the price increase reached 9.3%, and the peak-valley gap in the price cycle was 2.8%.

The third time was from 1987 to 1990. The country has implemented loose monetary and fiscal policies, and the macro-economy has recovered. However, the deep-seated problems accumulated in economic operation for many years have become increasingly prominent. In addition, in 1988, the price rose by 18.8%, and in 1990 it dropped sharply to 3.1%, and the peak-valley gap in the price cycle was as high as 15.7%.

The fourth time was from 1991 to 1999. This is the longest and largest price cycle since the reform and opening up, and the peak-valley gap is as high as 25.5%. Among them, from 1992 to 1994, the growth rate of the total investment in fixed assets of the whole society reached 44.4%, 61.8% and 30.4% respectively, and there was a nationwide real estate fever, which led to the price increase of 24.1% in 1994, which was the highest year since the founding of New China.

The fifth time was from 2007 to 2009. During this period, the price gap between peak and valley was 6.6%, and the main reasons for price fluctuation were the price increase of agricultural and sideline products such as pork and the price fluctuation of international commodities.

The main factors leading to price fluctuation

The price fluctuation since the reform and opening up is the result of many factors at home and abroad. First, the impact of external shocks on price fluctuations. In the past 10 years, the international economic situation has been turbulent, the drastic fluctuation of commodity prices and the weakening of external demand have formed an impact on China’s economy, and domestic prices have fluctuated due to the impact of the international economy. Second, from the perspective of China’s classified price index, food prices have significantly led the CPI, and the structural increase is obvious. Third, the factors of asset price fluctuation are mixed. In the process of establishing and perfecting China’s socialist market economic system, both real estate prices and stock prices have experienced abnormal and violent fluctuations, which inevitably lead to price fluctuations. In addition, some policy factors also play an important role in the price cycle fluctuation.

Thoughts and suggestions on stabilizing prices

At present, China’s prices are relatively stable, but there are still some uncertainties and risks, so we need to attach great importance to and do a good job in price work to keep the overall price level basically stable. First, optimize the monetary policy system and maintain a stable market environment. While regulating the money supply, the central bank should pay attention to the transformation of the intermediate goal of monetary policy to the marketization of interest rates; Fine-tune the interest rate through open market business to maintain the stability of the money market environment. The second is to increase the strategic reserve scale of energy, minerals and other commodities, and ease the resource bottleneck in China. Further improve the commodity futures and spot markets, establish an international pricing center in China, and gradually acquire the pricing power of international commodities. Third, vigorously develop modern agriculture, improve the reserve mechanism of grain and agricultural and sideline products, and improve the supply capacity of grain and food. Promote the construction of agricultural and sideline products circulation system, reduce the circulation cost of agricultural and sideline products, and improve the circulation efficiency of agricultural and sideline products. The fourth is to promote the all-round development of capital market tools such as stocks, bonds, futures and financial derivatives, expand the breadth and depth of the capital market and diversify investment risks. Formulate a reasonable real estate pricing mechanism to promote the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market.

(Author: School of Economics and Trade, Hunan University)

Pay attention to disability prevention ｜ Early screening and early intervention Tianjin continues to strengthen the prevention and control of birth defects

CCTV News:According to the second national sampling survey of disabled people, congenital factors account for 9.57% of the disabling factors. Among congenital disabilities, developmental defects and non-hereditary disabilities account for the highest proportion, reaching 68.91%. Therefore, it is very important to prevent disability from the source of life, and now a three-level prevention and control system has been formed in Tianjin before pregnancy, before and after childbirth.

Xi Xi, who is undergoing hearing rehabilitation training, is two and a half years old. Now she can sing and dance. She was just born and was diagnosed with hearing impairment during health screening. When Xi Xi was less than one year old, she put on a cochlear implant. After rehabilitation training, now she is cheerful and likes to communicate with people.

Grandma Wu Cailan:Now I feel that my children can sing and say ballads, and the intonation is ok, so I am particularly happy.

Li Yi, Chief of Children’s Rehabilitation Department of Tianjin Disabled Rehabilitation Service Center:Early screening is very important. After birth, if we can find the child’s hearing problems as soon as possible, and equip her with hearing AIDS or cochlear implants as soon as possible, the time of hearing loss will be shortened.

Xixi’s healthy growth has benefited from Tianjin’s continuous efforts to prevent and control birth defects in the past ten years. It has successively implemented the women’s and children’s health action plan, promotion plan and promotion plan, and established a three-level prevention and control system from pre-pregnancy, prenatal and postpartum.

Shao Ping, Director of Tianjin Maternal and Child Health Center:We use all the medical resources and rehabilitation resources in Tianjin to prevent the disabled. Take hearing impairment screening as an example. The initial screening is done in maternity hospitals and midwifery institutions, and the hearing screening is done at the bedside. If the child’s hearing screening fails, he will come to our center for diagnosis, forming a complete workflow.

In addition, through the combination of online and offline publicity, Tianjin enables pregnant women and parents of newborns to keep abreast of screening-related knowledge and actively participate in screening projects. Up to now, the average coverage rate of screening for 15 diseases in Tianjin has reached over 98%.

Once Upon a Time in Hollywood exposure stills margot robbie retro dress debut

1905 movie network news Recently, quentin tarantino’s new film exposed a stills of sharon tate played by margot robbie. In the stills, Margot·Robbie has shoulder-length blond hair, wearing a high-necked black sweater, a short white skirt and white boots. The overall shape is retro and natural, which is very pleasing to the eye.


Sharon tate was a famous actress in Hollywood in 1960s, who was famous for her beauty and moving. Judging from the newly exposed stills, sharon tate played by margot robbie seems a little conservative. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood told a famous murder case. From August 9 to 10, 1969, Polish director roman polanski was pregnant with actress wife Sharon, who was eight months pregnant.·Kitty, her four friends and the gardener’s son died tragically in a mansion in Beverly Hills. Sharon Tate, a gorgeous Hollywood star; Husband Roman Polanski, a famous Hollywood director, is eight months pregnant because her husband is filming in Europe. Sharon invited four friends to spend the weekend in her mansion in Beverly Hills. It should have been a happy weekend. However, it was their fame that got them killed. On August 9, 1969, Tate’s eight-month-old fetus was strangled alive with her mother. Four friends who spent the weekend at her home were also doomed. What is even more cruel is that they all died bloody and unrecognizable.


In the film, Xiao Li plays Rick Dalton, the neighbor of Polanski and his wife, a former western TV star, and Peter is the star’s long-time friend and body double Cliff Booth, both of whom strive to get ahead in Hollywood. Pacino is Marvin Shwarz, the agent of Little Plum, and this is his first collaboration with Quentin. Margot robbie plays Tate himself, Dakota Fanning plays Lynette Fromme, the notorious follower of Manson’s murder family, and burt reynolds plays George Spahn, who rented the farm to Manson’s family. In order to let Spahn allow them to live on this land, Charles Manson requires all female followers in the family to have sex with the 80-year-old man who is half blind at that time, including Lynette played by Fan Ning. Damian Lewis plays the famous Hollywood movie star steve mcqueen, emil Hesky plays the hairdresser Jay Sebring who was killed in the Tate case, Clifton Collins Jr. plays the Mexican cowboy Ernesto, and Nicholas Hammond plays the Hollywood actor sam wanamaker (). Kurt Russell, TimRoss and michael madsen will also appear in the film, and the roles they play are still unclear.


According to the plan, the film will be made into an R-rated film and will be released on August 9, 2019.


Nucleic acid detection non-stop medical staff stick to their posts 24 hours a day

CCTV News:Recently, in the second round of nucleic acid testing in Zhengzhou, Henan Province, a total of 7.65 million people in the urban area of the city need to be tested urgently. Medical staff must complete the testing task in the shortest time, and racing against time is the most important task for the soldiers in white.

At 9 o’clock in the morning, the medical staff who participated in the nucleic acid detection in Zhufu Hongcheng community in Zhengzhou put on protective clothing and prepared to start their day’s work. There are tens of thousands of permanent residents in this community. According to the regulations of Zhengzhou City, the second round of nucleic acid testing must be completed within three days. These days, medical staff and community workers are basically working around the clock.

Reporter:How long did we rest just now?

Medical staff:About five or six minutes.

Reporter:Can you stand the continuous rotation?

Medical staff:The workload is here, and I can’t care so much.

Guo Xinxin, a 34-year-old nurse in Henan Provincial People’s Hospital, has been in charge of nucleic acid testing since August 5th, and has not been home for more than 10 days. Guo Xinxin has two children, the older is 7 years old and the younger is less than 5 years old.

Guo Xinxin, a nurse in Henan Provincial People’s Hospital:The little man on my chest actually painted my girl, because she especially likes ballet. I always say come on, come on, my mother will cheer for you. I put it on my chest and feel that my girl has been cheering for me.

Notice of Beijing Municipal People’s Government on Approving the Trial Provisions of the Municipal Price Bureau on Strengthening Market Price Inspection and Supervision

Jing Zheng Fa [1980] No.50

The people’s governments of all districts and counties (Revolutionary Committees), and the commissions, offices and bureaus of the municipal government:

　　The Municipal People’s Government agrees with the Trial Provisions of the Municipal Price Bureau on Strengthening the Inspection and Supervision of Market Prices, and now it is forwarded to you, please implement it carefully.

Trial Provisions of Beijing Municipal Price Bureau on Strengthening Market Price Inspection and Supervision

　　In order to maintain the basic stability of market prices, prevent and correct arbitrary and disguised price increases, and make the inspection and supervision of market prices regular, institutionalized and popular, the following trial provisions are made:

　　First, set up full-time, part-time and compulsory price inspectors, and the Municipal Price Bureau will issue the Beijing Price Inspection Certificate to inspect and supervise the price implementation of designated units, promptly correct the violations of price policies, regulations and disciplines, and put forward suggestions for handling, and submit them to the relevant price, industrial and commercial administration and business authorities for handling.

　　Full-time price inspectors shall be appointed by the price staff of the price departments at all levels and the competent business departments.

　　Part-time price inspectors are selected from the staff of finance, taxation, banking and industrial and commercial administrative departments at all levels.

　　Voluntary price inspectors are invited by the price departments at all levels to be employees of local organs, organizations, enterprises and institutions, retired veteran cadres, old workers and old party member.

　　Full-time, part-time and compulsory price inspectors must be active and enthusiastic, upright in style, able to adhere to principles, seeking truth from facts, law-abiding, and unselfish.

　　Second, the people’s governments of all districts (counties) may establish mass price supervision organizations according to their respective regions, with the participation of representatives of local organs, enterprises, institutions and grass-roots shops, and be responsible for inspecting and supervising the implementation of prices and bargaining of non-staple food, grain, catering, fruits, vegetables, repairs, services, daily-use industrial products, clothing processing, street and commune enterprises, collecting and reflecting the opinions of the masses on prices, and publicizing and explaining the price policies to the masses.

　　Three, price inspectors and mass price supervision organizations in various regions, under the guidance of the price department of each district (county). The units under inspection should actively assist the price inspectors and price supervision organizations to carry out inspection work, provide relevant information and give convenient conditions.

　　Four, all systems, regions and units should establish a price inspection system that combines self-inspection, mutual inspection and spot check, and conscientiously implement it.

　　Five, the store, the retail department of commodity prices and charges, should be clearly marked. The catering industry and the varieties that are graded and priced by each enterprise should publish the main quality standards. According to the provisions of the implementation of bargaining and enterprise self pricing of commodity varieties and business items, to indicate the bargaining and self pricing. According to the price management division of labor authority to approve the adjustment of the planned price and charging standards of consumer goods, it is necessary to inform the grass-roots units of the reasons for the adjustment and the approval unit, and the grass-roots units should take appropriate measures to publicize and explain to the masses. Grass-roots units that use weights and measures should insist on regular calibration, timely maintenance and repair, and set up fair scales and scales.

　　Six, price inspectors and mass price supervision organizations in various regions to check and supervise prices mainly include: whether there is any unauthorized pricing, price increase or disguised price increase; Whether the grading pricing is reasonable; Whether the quality and price are consistent; Whether the weight size and weights and measures are accurate; Whether there is adulteration, Jerry-building, shoddy, and lower quality, whether there is any error in the price, and whether there is any problem with the customized price and negotiated sales price implemented according to the regulations; Equipped with price personnel, establish price account, clearly mark the price, announce the main quality standards, set up a fair scale, fair ruler, etc., whether it is sound, and whether there is any use of prices and weights and measures for corruption and other violations of price policies, regulations and disciplines.

　　Seven, the establishment of price inspection files. The results of each price inspection, including advantages, problems and responsible personnel, should be verified and registered in time, and signed by the price inspector or the representative of the price supervision organization, or the mutual inspection and sampling personnel of various regions and systems and the person in charge of the inspected unit as the basis for rewards and punishments.

　　Eight, all units of the inspection found in violation of price policies, regulations and discipline, unfair business activities, we should seriously deal with. Belong to the unit to raise prices, disguised price increases, price hikes, shoddy, Jerry-built, adulterated, short scale, price errors, inaccurate measurement, etc., to be corrected immediately; The overpaid and underpaid goods and the overpaid and underpaid goods should be refunded and replenished; If it cannot be refunded, the overpaid payment and the underpaid physical discount will all be turned over to the state treasury, which cannot be used as enterprise profits and bonuses.

　　Nine, all units should correctly implement the price policy, set prices, pricing methods, relevant systems and abide by price discipline, as an important content of enterprise appraisal and individual awards. Units or individuals who have performed well should be commended and rewarded, and those who have performed poorly should be criticized and educated, and even punished. Any enterprise, institution or individual that violates the price policy and undermines the price discipline shall not issue bonuses, and its superior leading unit must supervise the implementation. Price departments at all levels should closely cooperate with the administrative department for industry and commerce, strengthen cooperation, inspect and supervise the implementation of price policies, regulations and measures by all units, and conduct joint research on enterprises that engage in improper business activities such as raising prices and keeping prices down, short scales and adulteration, and give them education, warning, confiscation of illegal income, fines and even suspension of business according to different situations. Ten, to seriously mobilize the masses and price inspectors, price supervision organizations and salespeople, salespeople, in terms of commodity prices, quality, variety and other aspects of production units and wholesale units to supervise, found problems in a timely manner to the relevant parties, the competent departments and relevant units should seriously deal with.

　　The provisions on inspection contents and rewards and punishments also apply to production units, wholesale units and management departments.

National Development and Reform Commission： CPI rose by 1.7% in the first half of the year, and prices continued to operate within a reasonable range.

Cctv newsOn July 14th, the National Development and Reform Commission held a media briefing on the economic situation in the first half of the year. Wan Jinsong, director of the price department of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the meeting that since the beginning of this year, international energy and food prices have risen sharply, and inflation in major economies such as the United States and Europe has remained high. In recent months, the consumer price index (CPI) has risen by more than 8%, a record high in the past 40 years or on record. Last night, the CPI in June released by the United States rose as high as 9.1%. However, China’s prices continued to operate in a reasonable range. In the first half of the year, CPI rose by an average of 1.7%, which was significantly lower than that of other major economies, in sharp contrast to the high international inflation.

Wan Jinsong said that the CPC Central Committee and the State Council attached great importance to stabilizing prices. Since the beginning of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission has thoroughly implemented the decision-making arrangements of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, continuously strengthened the construction of the production, supply, storage and marketing system of important commodities such as grain and coal, and responded to the uncertainty of the external environment with the certainty of domestic supply and stable prices, effectively ensuring the basic stability of prices. In terms of important livelihood commodities such as grain, we will make every effort to stabilize grain production, strengthen regulation and control to stabilize pig production capacity, strengthen the connection between vegetable production and marketing, and do everything possible to ensure the supply and price stability of important livelihood commodities. Since the Ukrainian crisis, China’s food prices have risen by about 1.4% on average, far lower than the increase of 7.5%-9.5% in the United States and Europe. In terms of energy, China has continuously increased coal production and supply, improved the coal market price formation mechanism, guided coal prices to operate in a reasonable range, stabilized electricity prices and energy costs by stabilizing coal prices, and the prices of electricity and gas for residents have always remained basically stable. However, the electricity and gas prices of residents in major economies such as the United States and Europe have risen sharply. For example, in May, the electricity price in the euro zone rose by about 30% year-on-year, and the gas price rose by about 50% year-on-year.