The policy effect of "stable demand" for real estate loans is gradually emerging. According to the latest data from the People’s Bank of China, by the end of December 2021, the national real estate loan balance was 52.2 trillion yuan, up 7.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points higher than that at the end of September. According to the latest data from China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, China, the reasonable housing needs of buyers have been further met, and more than 90% of individual housing loans are used to support the first suite.
Many insiders said that in the future, real estate loans should start from the total amount and structure, and strengthen the expected guidance. From the perspective of the total amount, resolutely implement the "housing and not speculating" and keep the growth rate of real estate loans stable and orderly; From the structural point of view, adhere to the "guarantee and pressure", one is to meet the reasonable and rigid financing needs of housing enterprises and buyers more accurately and effectively, and the other is to resolutely curb the illegal entry of "operating loans" into the property market; At the same time, increase support for the long-term rental market and the construction of affordable housing.
Keep the mortgage growth rate stable.
Keeping the growth rate of real estate loans stable is of great significance for stabilizing the macro-economy and preventing financial risks.
On the one hand, the real estate industry is large in scale, long in chain, involving a wide range and related to many jobs. "Reasonable and moderate growth rate of real estate loans will promote the growth of the national economy." Ceng Gang, deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, said. On the other hand, the housing demand of residents is still strong. Wang Menghui, Minister of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that at present, the urbanization rate of permanent residents in China is 63.9%, which is still in the stage of rapid urbanization. Every year, more than 11 million people are newly employed in cities and towns, which brings a lot of new housing demand.
Real estate loan consists of two parts, one is real estate development loan for real estate enterprises, and the other is personal mortgage loan for property buyers. By analyzing the published data of mortgage growth rate in China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, we can see that it shows a trend of "stabilizing and slowing down". By the end of April, June, July, September and November 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of mortgage loans was 10.5%, 10.3%, 8.7%, 8.6% and 8.4% respectively.
Why is there a steady decline? On the one hand, this is a remarkable achievement in fully implementing the long-term mechanism of real estate and curbing the financial bubble of real estate; On the other hand, some financial institutions are cautious about the real estate industry, and there has been a consistent contraction of credit.
"The risks of individual large-scale housing enterprises are exposed, the risk appetite of financial institutions for the real estate industry has dropped significantly, and the growth rate of real estate development loans has dropped significantly." Zou Lan, director of the Financial Markets Department of the People’s Bank of China, said this in October 2021. In addition, some banks have misunderstood the financing management rules of key housing enterprises, resulting in the reasonable financing needs of some housing enterprises not being effectively met.
In order to reduce the "accidental injury" to the reasonable and rigid financing demand, in the second half of 2021, especially in the fourth quarter, the financial supervision department optimized the financing environment of the real estate industry and focused on "stabilizing expectations". Among them, real estate loans increased by 773.4 billion yuan in the fourth quarter, an increase of 202 billion yuan year-on-year and an increase of 157.8 billion yuan over the third quarter.
Ceng Gang believes that under the orientation of "staying in a house without speculation", various regulatory measures will be more precise, flexible and appropriate, and real estate loans will gradually "stabilize", creating favorable conditions for realizing the policy objectives of "stabilizing land prices, housing prices and expectations".
Accurately meet reasonable needs
In addition to stabilizing the total amount of credit, the credit structure also needs to be optimized to achieve "guaranteed pressure". On the one hand, it is necessary to meet the reasonable and rigid financing needs of housing enterprises and property buyers more effectively; On the other hand, we will resolutely punish violations of laws and regulations and curb the illegal entry of "business loans" into the property market.
At present, real estate development loans have been restored in an orderly manner, and the reasonable financing needs of housing enterprises are being effectively supported. However, the follow-up work still faces some difficulties. "Some highly leveraged housing enterprises still have risks, the financial situation has not been completely alleviated, and there is pressure on debt repayment. Therefore, financial institutions will remain relatively cautious about the real estate industry. " Ceng Gang said.
How to solve the above problems? To promote the risk resolution of housing enterprises in an orderly manner, the "high debt, high leverage and high turnover" real estate development and operation model formed in the past is unsustainable. To this end, the Central Bank and China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission recently jointly issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in Financial Services for Mergers and Acquisitions of Risk Disposal Projects of Key Real Estate Enterprises.
In addition to housing enterprises, the "just need" of buyers will also be guaranteed. Since November 2021, the central bank has released individual housing loan statistics separately. Personal housing loans increased by 348.1 billion yuan in October, an increase of 101.3 billion yuan over September; In November, it increased by 401.3 billion yuan, an increase of 53.2 billion yuan over October.
At present, more than 90% of the bank personal housing loans are first home loans. "In the future, we will continue to provide differentiated support to the just-needed groups in terms of loan down payment ratio and interest rate." Liu Zhongrui, head of the Statistical Information and Risk Monitoring Department of China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, said.
"Open the front door" and "block the side door". Liu Zhongrui said that the financial regulatory authorities will severely punish violations of laws and regulations, maintain a high-pressure situation, and strictly prevent illegal loans for business purposes from flowing into the real estate sector to prevent the resurgence of chaos. China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission has carried out a nationwide special inspection of real estate for four consecutive years, covering almost all hot cities. It has "zero tolerance" for violations found and is seriously accountable for violations according to law.
Support the housing rental market
The Central Economic Work Conference clearly pointed out that it is necessary to adhere to the orientation of "houses are used for living, not for speculation", strengthen the guidance of expectations, explore new development models, adhere to both rent and purchase, accelerate the development of the long-term rental market, and promote the construction of affordable housing. Therefore, another important direction of mortgage structure adjustment is to increase support for the long-term rental market and the construction of affordable housing.
"We will speed up the improvement of the housing security system with public rental housing, affordable rental housing and shared property housing as the main body." Pan Wei, head of the Housing Security Department of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, said that the development of affordable rental housing should be accelerated with the focus on cities with large population inflows and high housing prices. According to the plan, during the Tenth Five-Year Plan period, 40 key cities in China plan to add 6.5 million sets (rooms) of affordable rental housing, which is expected to solve the housing difficulties of 13 million people.
In recent years, financial support for the housing rental market has been increasing. By the end of November 2021, the growth rate of loans invested in the housing rental market was close to five times the average growth rate of various loans.
It is understood that there are two main paths for credit funds to support affordable rental housing: one is to increase support for the construction and operation of affordable rental housing, and banks provide long-term loans to self-sustaining entities of affordable rental housing in a market-oriented manner; The second is to provide loans to housing leasing enterprises that rebuild and transform existing houses to form non-proprietary affordable rental housing.
"By the end of November 2021, CCB’s comprehensive housing leasing service platform had covered 96% of the country’s prefecture-level and above administrative regions, and issued 78.598 billion yuan of corporate housing leasing loans." Wang Jiang, president of China Construction Bank, said.
Financial service innovation also needs to be accelerated. "ICBC Credit Suisse Investment has successfully issued the first provincial-level talent apartment REITs product in China, which has made positive innovation and beneficial exploration for financial support for housing rental construction." The relevant person in charge of China Industrial and Commercial Bank said that in the future, it will study the innovative operation mode of housing leasing enterprises, improve the rental housing loan product system, improve the financial service level, and promote the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry.