标签： 夜上海

Consumption is the ultimate demand and the lasting driving force of economic growth. For a period of time, the COVID-19 epidemic has changed people’s daily life, and some consumption has been suppressed. In the short term, the growth of the consumer market is indeed affected; However, in the medium and long term, the epidemic has not changed the long-term trend of China’s economy. Many consumption has not disappeared, but has been postponed, and will naturally be released after the epidemic is over.

On March 13th, the National Development and Reform Commission and other 23 departments jointly issued the Implementation Opinions on Promoting Consumption Expansion, Upgrading and Accelerating the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market, aiming at further improving the consumption environment, giving play to the basic role of consumption and helping to form a strong domestic market.

The Opinions put forward that it is necessary to accelerate the construction of a "smart+"consumption ecosystem, encourage the use of green smart products, create green shopping malls, and promote green consumption.

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What are green smart products?

At present, there is no clear definition of green smart products in China. However, as can be seen from some policy documents, green smart products generally include the following types: green smart home appliances, smart phones, new energy vehicles and other green smart electronic and electrical products.

China has a large population and strong consumer demand, but structurally, the market share of green smart products is not high. Vigorously supporting the production and sales of green smart products is conducive to promoting the transformation and upgrading of related industries, on the other hand, it is conducive to better combining encouraging the expansion of consumption with meeting the people’s demand for high-quality products.

Taking green smart home appliances as an example, according to statistics, in 2018, China’s household appliance consumption accounted for the fifth place in the total retail sales of social consumer goods above designated size. In terms of total volume, China is now the world’s largest producer and seller of household appliances. In 2017, the domestic sales of air conditioners, refrigerators, washing machines and flat-panel TVs were about 230 million units, with sales approaching 800 billion yuan.

But among them, the market share of green smart home appliances is relatively low. Taking air conditioners as an example, among the household air conditioners sold in 2017, the proportion of green, intelligent and comfortable first-class energy-efficient inverter air conditioners in total sales is relatively low.

In fact, in recent years, China has been continuously promoting the production, consumption and recycling of green smart products.

In January 2019, the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments issued the "Implementation Plan for Further Optimizing Supply, Promoting Steady Growth of Consumption and Promoting the Formation of a Strong Domestic Market (2019)", which proposed to support the sales of green and smart home appliances; Promote the upgrading of home appliances. Where conditions permit, consumers can be given appropriate subsidies for the sales of new green and intelligent household appliances with long industrial chain, large driving coefficient and obvious synergistic effect of energy saving and emission reduction.

In August 2019, the General Office of the State Council issued the Opinions on Accelerating the Development of Circulation and Promoting Commercial Consumption, which proposed to support the trade-in of green smart products. Encourage qualified circulation enterprises to recycle waste electronic and electrical products eliminated by consumers, and replace green, energy-saving and intelligent electronic and electrical products such as ultra-high-definition TVs, energy-saving refrigerators, washing machines, air conditioners and smart phones at a discount to expand green and intelligent consumption. At the same time, financial institutions are encouraged to provide credit support for residents to buy green smart products such as new energy vehicles, green smart home appliances, smart homes and water-saving appliances, and increase financial support for new consumption areas.

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"With reference to the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance’s" Energy-saving Products Benefiting the People Project ",we will promote high-efficiency energy-saving smart products by means of financial subsidies, and give appropriate subsidies to consumers who purchase products such as inverter air conditioners, refrigerators, drum washing machines and flat-panel TVs with first-class energy efficiency. If the policy is promoted nationwide, it is estimated that the sales of 150 million green smart home appliances will be increased from 2019 to 2021, which will boost consumption by about 700 billion yuan and save electricity by about 80 billion kWh in the whole life cycle. " Experts pointed out that the implementation of a series of policies is of great significance to promoting the high-quality development of related industries, forming a strong domestic market, promoting energy conservation and emission reduction, and promoting the construction of ecological civilization.

What is a green shopping mall?

Shopping in leisure time is one of the daily lifestyles of many Chinese people. The shopping environment is pleasing to the eye, the light and heat are properly controlled, and the proportion of green products and services is increasing … Do you find that a shopping mall at your doorstep is quietly "turning green"? In fact, this is closely related to the creation of green shopping malls in China in recent years.

What is a "green shopping mall"? Green shopping mall is a commercial and retail enterprise integrating green product sales, green technology application and waste recycling.

In May 2016, in order to thoroughly implement the spirit of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and implement the new development concept, the Ministry of Commerce launched the creation of green shopping malls nationwide, starting with the format of shopping centers.

In September 2018, the General Office of the State Council issued the Implementation Plan for Improving the System and Mechanism for Promoting Consumption (2018-2020), proposing to develop and expand green consumption, create a number of green shopping malls, and gradually extend to supermarkets, specialty store and other formats on the basis of continuing to create green shopping centers, guide circulation enterprises to set up green product areas, expand the sales of green products, and actively play the exemplary role of green shopping malls in promoting green recycling consumption.

In December 2018, the General Office of the State Council issued the "Pilot Work Plan for the Construction of a Waste-Free City", which once again proposed to create green shopping malls and cultivate a group of green circulation subjects who apply energy-saving technologies, sell green products and provide green services.

Up to now, there are about 230 green shopping malls in China, such as wanda plaza in Tongzhou, hang lung plaza in Tianjin and Shanghai No.1 Department Store Commercial Center.

These green shopping malls ensure consumers’ consumption safety and quality by building green supply chains, selling safe and healthy green goods and providing green services; Through promoting a green and low-carbon lifestyle, strictly implementing the "plastic limit order" and strictly recycling waste, the concept of green consumption and green life was publicized.

In addition, according to statistics, from January to November 2018, 85 green shopping malls created in 2016-2017 achieved sales of 113.882 billion yuan, up 5.06% year-on-year, and electricity consumption decreased 6.37% year-on-year. It can be said that through a series of measures, green shopping malls have achieved a "double harvest" of their economic and social benefits.

So, how to create a green shopping mall? According to the "Work Plan for the Establishment and Implementation of Green Shopping Mall (2020-2022)" issued by the Ministry of Commerce, a shopping mall can only apply for the establishment of a green shopping mall if it does a good job in six aspects: establishing a green management system, popularizing and applying energy-saving equipment, perfecting a green supply chain system, carrying out green services and publicity, advocating green consumption concepts and carrying out green recycling. The plan proposes that by the end of 2022, more than 40% of large-scale shopping malls in the country will initially meet the requirements for creation.

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At present, although the development momentum of green shopping malls is good, it also faces many problems. For example, some consumers don’t know what a green shopping mall is and which shopping malls are green, while others say they are not interested in green shopping malls.

In this regard, experts suggest that relevant departments and green shopping malls should strengthen consumer promotion and information guidance, and establish and implement a statistical reporting system for market share of green products. "Corporate stores are recognized as green shopping malls, which is a brand new beginning. With the increasing number of green shopping malls, retail enterprises and consumers will have a clearer understanding of them. "

Original title: "Make an appointment! After the epidemic, let’s go to the green shopping mall.

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Since March, the good news of "Shuimao" has continued:

Founder Zhong Bianyuan has been the richest man in China for a row. On the 21st, he launched a new tea series "steam tea". On the evening of the 28th, the company’s 2021 annual report was released, and its performance has picked up significantly…

As a well-deserved soft drink giant in China, Nongfu Spring has passed last year’s "dark time" (related reading: Nongfu Spring overturned?), and everything seems to be going well.

Is that really the case? ifeng.com’s "eye of the storm" reviewed its annual report and found that, as a giant in the domestic soft drink industry, although Nongfu Spring handed over a good 2021 annual report answer sheet, it was backed by the weakness of the 2020 annual report data.

Further sorting out. In addition to experiencing a low performance, Nongfu Spring has not only suffered a "roller coaster" of stock prices and a sharp decline in market value in the past year and a half since its listing, but also fell into environmental pollution and food safety crises twice – a series of negative events that have wiped out hundreds of billions of Zhong’s net worth.

At the same time, the issue of "inflated valuation", which was widely criticized at the beginning of Nongfu Spring’s listing, has not been solved, which has become a major obstacle to the stability of the stock price.

01

Annual report dismantling: earning over 7 billion, tea beverage performance contribution is better than competing products

According to the 2021 annual report of Nongfu Spring, the total income of Nongfu Spring last year was 29.696 billion yuan, an increase of 29.8% year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the mother was 7.16 billion yuan, an increase of 35.7% year-on-year; the cash flow of operating activities increased by 35.2% year-on-year in 2020 to 11.40 billion yuan. The company’s gross profit margin was 59.5%, which was basically the same as 59% in 2020.

In terms of products, packaged drinking water is still the pillar product of Nongfu Spring. In 2021, the annual revenue was 17.058 billion yuan, an increase of 22.1% over 2020, accounting for more than half of the total revenue and 57.4%. However, this proportion decreased to a certain extent from 61% in 2020.

After packaged drinking water, the annual revenue of tea beverage products in 2021 was 4.576 billion yuan, an increase of 48.3% over 2020, and the proportion of the company’s overall revenue increased from 13.5% in 2020 to 15.4%.

The third and fourth largest functional beverage products and juice beverage products accounted for the same percentage of total revenue as last year. Among them, the annual revenue of functional beverage products in 2021 was 3.695 billion yuan, an increase of 32.3% over 2020; the annual revenue of juice beverage products was 2.614 billion yuan, an increase of 32.2%.

In addition, it is worth noting that the contribution of other products represented by soda drinks, flavored beverages, coffee drinks, plant yogurt, etc. in the total revenue has increased to a certain extent, an increase of 1.4 percentage points over 2020, from 4.6% to 6.0% in 2021, and the annual revenue in 2021 is 1.75 billion yuan, an increase of 66.0% over 2020.

Revenue Composition of Nongfu Spring by Product Category (Source: 2021 Annual Report)

Analysis of the reasons for the recovery of Nongfu Spring’s performance in 2021 shows that it is largely due to the overall recovery of China’s food and beverage industry last year.

In its annual report, Nongfu Spring pointed out that the national beverage production exceeded 183 million tons in 2021, an increase of 12% year-on-year. In 2021, the operating income of China’s beverage manufacturing industry increased by 13.5% year-on-year. Among them, the manufacturing industry of bottled (canned) drinking water increased by 12% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry of tea beverages and other soft drinks increased by 12% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry of fruit and vegetable juice drinks increased by nearly 14% year-on-year, the manufacturing industry of carbonated beverages increased by 19% year-on-year, and the manufacturing industry of milk beverages and vegetable protein beverages increased by nearly 11

It is not difficult to find that the growth of Nongfu Spring’s total revenue and sub-product revenue data outperformed the industry average. Intuitively, it does show a certain recovery ability of the company, but if the time line is extended, it can be found that the reason why the company’s operation improved significantly in 2021 has a lot to do with the decline in performance in 2020.

Data show that the total income of Nongfu Spring in 2020 was 22.877 billion yuan, down 4.8% year-on-year, which is also the first time in the past five years that the company’s revenue has declined year-on-year; the net profit attributable to the mother was 5.277 billion yuan, an increase of 6.65% year-on-year, which is also the company’s new low in the past five years.

Regarding the reasons for the decline in performance in 2020, Nongfu Spring has stated that the COVID-19 pandemic in the first half of 2020 and the floods caused by heavy rains in many provinces in China in July 2020 affected the company’s product transportation and product sales to some retail outlets, and also temporarily closed some retail outlets. At the same time, the epidemic has reduced consumers’ willingness to travel, and the implementation of measures such as wearing masks has also suppressed the sales of ready-to-drink products, which has a certain negative impact on the Group’s operating performance in 2020.

From this perspective, it is not difficult to understand that the company’s performance in 2021 has rebounded significantly after bottoming out.

Nongfu Spring’s recent financial summary (data source: Wind)

In addition to the industry’s recovery drive in 2021, but from the perspective of product composition, Nongfu Spring’s performance boost in 2021 was mainly due to the growth in revenue of key products.

The "eye of the storm" of ifeng.com found that from the main products of Nongfu Spring – packaged drinking water, tea beverages, functional drinks, fruit juices, and other products, the largest increase in revenue during the reporting period was tea beverages, reaching 48.3%, which was significantly higher than that of Master Kong Holdings and Unified Enterprise China, which were also beverage companies. The growth rates of tea beverages in the latter two were 13.78% and 15.2% respectively.

Nongfu Spring’s tea drinks are mainly marked by two beverages, "Tea Pi" and "Oriental Leaf". According to the company’s 2021 annual report, last year marked the 10th anniversary of the launch of "Oriental Leaf". Under the trend of "sugar-free" diet, "Oriental Leaf", which was controversial in the past, has now become the leader of the sugar-free tea drink track. To further open up the market, the company launched two new flavors, "Green Orange Pu’er" and "Black Rice Tea", in the first half of 2021. In addition, in September 2021, Nongfu Spring also launched a "new" milk tea series, and three flavors were launched in one go – black tea milk tea, oolong milk tea and jasmine green; in December of that year, it further launched a new winter-limited flavor of cocoa milk tea.

The successive launch of new products has finally increased the current revenue of Nongfu Spring tea beverage products by nearly 50% compared with 2020, and recorded 4.58 billion yuan in the whole year, accounting for more than 15% of the total revenue.

In this regard, the CICC research report said that the outstanding performance of Nongfu Spring tea beverages was mainly due to the good performance of Oriental leaves, tea π and other classic product flavors and new flavors under marketing activation. The company seized the opportunity to take advantage of seasonal new osmanthus and oolong flavors to help the growth rate of Oriental leaves further increase, and the tea Spring Festival stocking also performed well.

02

After a year and a half of listing, the stock price roller coaster has evaporated

Nongfu Spring was founded in 1996, but only listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in September 2020. The belated IPO bell has also drawn special attention to the beverage giant’s road to capital markets.

Since its listing, Nongfu Spring has indeed achieved a leap forward in its share price under the attention of many people. The share price on the first day of listing skyrocketed by more than 80%, from the initial issue price of HK $21.5/share to the intraday peak of HK $68.75/share on January 8, 2021. The share price has more than doubled in less than five months, and the total market value once exceeded HK $770 billion.

But then, the company’s share price took a nosedive and began to decline, giving back 25% of its gains in less than two months.

Since the listing of Nongfu Spring,