After many strong policy rescues, the A-share market in November finally closed at Xiaoyang Line. Although the increase was only 8.24%, it still eased the panic atmosphere of continuous plunge this year to a certain extent. In addition, the news that the social security fund issued last Friday said that it would increase its position made people have higher expectations for the market in December. However, no matter from the current market fundamentals of internal troubles and foreign invasion, or from the statistical data of historical market, the market in December is full of hardships and dangers.
Three "cold currents"
The stock market is really cold at the end of the year.
Qin Hong, who invested in Jin Bailing, said in an interview with reporters last night that there were three "cold currents" at the end of the year in the stock market. First of all, the pressure to lift the ban on restricted shares has increased. Since the beginning of this year, it has almost formed a convention in the market, that is, whenever there is a blowout in the A-share market, large-scale transactions of non-restricted shares will also blow out. Last Monday and Tuesday, there were only two large-scale trading information of Derun Electronics and Guangdong Electric Power B in Shenzhen market, but by last Thursday, four stocks of Huatian Technology, Chenzhou Mining, Qingdao Soft Control and Sanmu Group appeared in one day. This shows that even if the market rises sharply in the short term, it will be weak because of the increased selling pressure of shares after the lifting of the ban. The market value of lifting the ban on restricted shares in December has increased significantly compared with recent months, and people in the industry are generally worried that this will curb the rebound space of the A-share market.
Secondly, investors are worried about the performance of the annual report. Although this week has not yet entered the annual report performance forecast cycle, after all, entering December means that the performance of listed companies has been basically finalized this year, and mainstream funds have begun to consider the performance of the 2008 annual report. Listed companies in chemical, real estate, steel, coal and other related industries are facing the expectation of impairment provision brought about by the sharp drop in inventory prices, which will curb the enthusiasm of institutional capital allocation at the end of the year.
Third, the diversion of market funds by new stock assets such as additional issuance. China Merchants Property and other stocks have recently kicked off the resumption of refinancing in the A-share market, which will undoubtedly play a role in diverting the already limited on-site stock funds. What’s more, the market expects that the IPO will resume, at least in December, and there is a strong expectation for the IPO to reopen. Once the IPO opens, the demand for funds can not be ignored, and the market may re-find a new valuation balance point.
Main stage fright
The fund is not optimistic about the end of the year
TOPVIEW data shows that the day before the interest rate cut, the most open positions were also funds. The fund bought more than 500 million yuan last Wednesday; Last Thursday’s public trading information of the Exchange also showed that many institutions bought shares such as Jidong Cement and faw xiali. It seems that the fund is doing more.
Then, will the "year-end market" break out with the fund’s willingness to make a high net worth under the stimulus of a sharp interest rate cut and 4 trillion yuan?
Judging from the public comments of some funds, after the interest rate cut, most fund managers are optimistic about the bond market, and funds such as CCB, CITIC, Fuguo and Soochow all said that there are greater opportunities for bonds. The comments on the stock market are mostly: reducing the financial cost of listed companies is helpful to their performance, and real estate may bottom out in advance, but its impact on banks is "neutral and negative", which is reflected in the economy with a long time lag. Obviously, from the fund’s remarks, it is impossible to read the reliable information of long stock market at the end of the year. Some thoughts of brokerage researchers may help to judge the market.
Li Daxiao, director of the Securities Research Institute of Yingda University, said that the interest rate cut can’t change the direction of the economy, but it is helpful to prevent the economy from falling too fast. The valuation of stocks can be improved because of the sharp reduction in interest rates, and it is still too early to turn completely. Xie Yaxuan, a researcher at China Merchants Securities (HK), said that the interest rate cut had a stimulating effect on China’s economy, but it was difficult to make up for the negative impact on the economy caused by the decline in external demand and the previous tight macroeconomic policies in a short time, and it was difficult to quickly change the downward trend of economic growth. The reversal of the stock market needs basic factors such as a clear macroeconomic situation, continuous loose monetary policy and a return to normal investor confidence, which is not complete at present.
Fall more and rise less.
December is not good for 15 years.
As we all know, December every year is a month full of longing for the next year’s market, but it is often extremely disappointing. This year, after the stock index fell from more than 5,000 points in January to less than 2,000 points now, an unprecedented bear market has troubled investors in the global capital market. The just-concluded November market, supported by the powerful favorable policy of 4 trillion yuan to stimulate the economy, only came out with a slight rebound.
In fact, looking back at the 15 December market in the past 15 years, it is not difficult for investors to find that the December market disappointed investors far more than they hoped. In the 15 years from 1993 to 2007, except for six large-scale December months in 1997, 2000, 2003, 2005, 2006 and 2007, the market in other nine years ended in decline. In the nine years of decline, the decline was as high as 15% in December 1993 and 13% in December 1995. In the other seven years, regardless of the bear market or bull market, the market in December often fell a lot.
Experts believe that judging from the December market in the past 15 years, it is difficult to get out of the rising market unless it is a big bull market because most market institutions will have pressure to withdraw funds in December. In December this year, it is in a big bear market itself, and at the same time, it is subject to the attack of internal and external troubles such as the lifting of the ban and the deterioration of the economic environment. Therefore, it is expected that the whole market will not be optimistic next month, and the probability of the monthly line closing the negative line will be relatively large.
Awesome again
Masukura is not effective in the short term.
According to the statistics of the third quarter statements of all listed companies in the two cities, 145 listed companies are heavily held by social security funds, while only 108 stocks are heavily held by social security funds in the second quarter. In the third quarter, the number of shares held by social security funds reached 10.126 billion shares, an increase of 10% compared with 9.107 billion shares in the second quarter.
Is this Masukura really "magic" for the social security fund again? "At present, the market is still in a downward trend. According to the characteristics of the previous social security fund Masukura, most of them entered the market in a big way at the beginning of the market trend leveling or even rising. At present, the social security Masukura of 10% may only pave the way. For the majority of investors who are mainly in the short and medium term, it is risky to follow social security rashly under the current circumstances." Qi Xiangyang, a senior researcher at Guoyuan Securities, said.
"But the possibility of using social security funds to save the market is relatively small." Due to the particularity of the social security fund, even if the state intends to prop up the market, it will not let the social security fund enter the market to support the index like Huijin. Qi Xiangyang said that the operation of social security funds has been relatively independent, and the main way to enter the market is to buy stocks by opening special accounts in fund companies, so it is difficult to form short and powerful market support actions. "This Masukura of social security is likely to be an action before and after’ 9.19′." According to Qi Xiangyang’s analysis, before and after "9.19", the attitude of management to rescue the market has been made clear. Although it may not eventually form a bottom, according to experience, a strong policy bottom like "9.19" is often not too far from the bottom of the market, and social security may be a strategic position increase. Because it may take a long time for the market to bottom out, it depends on the next move of social security.
Focus on defense
Main melody melody of social security fund
Judging from the increase in positions of social security funds in the third quarter, the increase in stocks of social security funds is mainly concentrated in food, public utilities, airports and highways. Among them, food and beverage holdings are more, namely Sanquan Food, Tsingtao Brewery and Chengde Lulu. The increase in social security funds of airport expressways is also very large, including Shenzhen Airport, Shandong Expressway, Baiyun Airport and Guangdong Expressway. These listed companies have a number of social security fund portfolios. The varieties increased by the social security fund in the power industry are mainly Guiguan Power and Shenneng shares.
From the strategy of increasing the holdings of social security funds, defensive strategy is still the main theme of social security funds. Under the downward trend of macro-economy, social security funds have two ways to ensure the safety of funds, one is to reduce their positions, and the other is to enter defensive industries. Non-ferrous metals, transportation, machinery and equipment, medicine and biology and other industries with high safety margins have become "safe havens" in their weak cities, and social security funds have a special liking for loss-making power stocks.
The data shows that in the third quarter, 73 stocks were added to 15 social security portfolios, 32 listed companies were increased and 26 listed companies were reduced. The number of listed companies that have increased their holdings by social security has increased, and from the perspective of the strength of increasing their holdings, the number and proportion of shares increased by social security funds have exceeded the scale of reduction.
In the third quarterly report, the market value of the social security fund shrank by 6.68%, which was far lower than the quarterly decline of about 16% in the Shanghai Composite Index and 22.57% in the Shenzhen Composite Index, indicating that the social security fund had a more obvious action of adding positions. Looking at the time window, from the establishment of the social security fund in 2000 to October 2008, the average annual investment return rate of the national social security fund was 8.92%, which was 6.54 percentage points higher than the average annual inflation rate in the same period. Although social security funds often enter the market with foresight, when they reach out and get caught in the quilt, the defeat in the battles such as celebrity home ownership also damages their vitality. (Guan Xiaofeng, Xu Jianhua, Yin Wu)
Editor: Zhang Renhe
